Are you entitled...

While watching a Toronto-Detroit NHL game in 2002, the commentators pontificated on the chances of the Maple Leafs going to the Stanley Cup finals. I thought to myself that is about the last thing I would want to have happen, since Toronto thinks they're God's gift to hockey and they will be oppressively unsufferable. But, they have gone 36 years without winning, so maybe they're due. But, they won all of those cups in the past, so are they really due? There has to be a way to figure this out. So, I decided to figure out mathematically what cities are spoiled and which ones have a right to whine.

Determining what leagues and when:

Baseball was easy. Anytime there was a World Series, that season counted. So this includes every season from 1903 except 1904 and 1994, since there were no World Series in those years. Hockey was also pretty easy -- 1927 -- the first year of the Chicago, Detroit and New York Ranger franchises.

Football produced a little bit of a problem. One option was to start in the Super Bowl era. However, this does rule out several years of titles that were very prestigious, such as the famous 1958 title game or the Packer victories of the early 1960's. However, if you include the 1930's, professional football was less popular than college football. So, the 1950 season was used, the first season of the NFL-AAFC merger.

Basketball has a similar issue as well, mainly because the league was an outgrowth of semi-pro and barnstorming teams and slowly evolved into a major sport. The year 1951 was chosen because it represented the first year of a relatively stable league after the NBL-BAA merger with the nascent NBA at 11 teams.

Only championships from the established "major league" are considered. Championships in the Federal League, AFL, ABA and WHA were not considered. Soccer was also not considered since it has yet to be considered a major league in the United States, despite their name. The CFL was also removed from consideration since both the AFL and the residency rules precluded them from consistently having top-flight players despite their parity with the NFL in the 1950s.

The Raw Numbers

Simply put, a teams "Expected Championship" score is the number of championships that city has been expected to win. If a team is in a 20 team league, presumably it has a 1 in 20 chance of winning the championship or 0.05. These are added up and the final sum represents the expected championships for a city. Uneven leagues are taken in consideration. For example, presently in Major League Baseball there are 14 teams in the A.L. and 16 teams in the N.L. An A.L. team would have a 1 in 28 chance of winning the championship [(1/14)/2] while an N.L. team would have a 1 in 32 chance [(1/16)/2]. For example, the Detroit Tigers:

• From 1903-1960 they were in the 8 team American League, having 57 chances to win the title (no 1904 world Series). They had a 1 in 16 chance -> one in 8 of winning the pennant and a 50-50 chance at winning the World Series. 57 * (1 / 16) = 3.563.
• From 1961-1968 they were in the 10 team American League. 8 * (1 / 20) = 0.400.
• From 1969-1976 they were in the 12 team American League. 8 * (1 / 24) = 0.333.
• From 1977-2002 they were in the 14 team American League (no 1994 World Series). 25 * (1 / 28) = 0.893.
• Add up the parts -- 3.563 + 0.400 + 0.333 + 0.893 = 5.189. During this time the Tigers won four titles, so they are "short" 1.189 titles.

Determining Markets

There are a few situations where teams either share or are in adjacent markets. These were either left alone or split on a case-by-case basis:

• Charlotte/Raleigh: Too far apart to be considered one market.
• Los Angeles/Anaheim: These were kept together for two reasons. The Anaheim Angels consider themselves "Los Angeles". Secondly, the Mighty Ducks had to pay the Kings an indemnity when joining the league.
• Milwaukee/Green Bay: These were combined since there was no overlap between sports and the Packers until a few years ago did play home games in Milwaukee.
• New York/New Jersey: These were split into two groups, those teams who used a New York location in their name (e.g.: New York City, Brooklyn) and a group that used the name "New Jersey". The football playing teams that currently play in New Jersey but use the New York name are considered New York. The reason for this is that there is not a heavy fan base for the New Jersey named teams by the New York market outside of New Jersey.
• Oakland/San Francisco: These were combined since they are one television market and do not have teams (other than football) that have steadfast allegiances.
• Tampa Bay/Orlando: These were kept separate despite no overlap in sports due to the fact that they are separate television markets and have bid for expansion franchises in the sports that they do not have.

The Results

As expected, cities where one team has dominated the sport title-wise -- New York in baseball, Boston in basketball and Montreal in hockey -- came out near the top. Chicago ended up the worst, now short 8.13 titles. Remember, this is a city that has won eight titles in the last 20 years. Buffalo is the lowest city of any team to have never won anything.

Last Updated: 28-Oct-2005 | Send me an e-mail | Go back to blog | Go home