I started playing some games with the 2015 baseball set this week. One thing I begin to notice was a red 26 on dice roll 21. I had never really seen that before. So I began to wonder:
- Did APBA assign more 26s? Nope, the average card in 2014 had 1.28, and the average card in 2015 had 1.29.
- Can players get a third 26? Nope, not a single card in either 2014 or 2015 had a third 26.
So as seen below, the second 26 had merely swapped positions, leaving 62 for 21 (the x-axis representing the play result and the y-axis representing the percentage of plate appearances with that particular play result):
However, on a swap, you would expect the now much lower counts of 30 and 32 to take the place the relocated 26. However, although there are some, it’s not complete. The sum of the 2014 fly balls on 21 is .51 vs the 2015 sum of .24, but the sum of the 2015 fly balls on 62 is .07, only a .04 increase from 2014’s .03.
Do we have less 30s and 32s? A touch less, but not much. The 30 saw a decrease of 1.51 to 1.44, and the 32 1.52 to 1.49. However, that’s only a total of .10. So where did they go?
It looks like 24 and 26 became more popular destinations, although their increased presence is more than overshadowed by the 13:
Since the number of 13s remain largely unchanged (5.93 in 2014, 5.94 in 2015), the ones displaced from 21, 24, and 26 scattered to other numbers, especially 42 and 56.
Before wrapping up, I just thought I would mention one other curiosity, that even though the play numbers of 24–32 on the cards in the 2015 set aren’t that different from 2014, the ratios of them seem to be somewhat different. Here’s a list of the top 10 sets from 2014 and 2015:
| 2014 Out Numbers | Percentage |
|---|---|
| 25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32 | .024 |
| 24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32 | .023 |
| 25-26-27-28-29-30-30-31-32-32 | .020 |
| 24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-31-32 | .018 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-30-31-31-32 | .018 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-29-30-30-31-31-32 | .018 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-30-30-31-31-32 | .016 |
| 25-26-27-27-28-28-29-29-30-31-31-32-32 | .016 |
| 24-24-25-26-27-29-30-31-32 | .016 |
| 24-25-26-26-27-27-28-29-29-30-30-31-31-32 | .016 |
| 2015 Out Numbers | Percentage |
|---|---|
| 25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32 | .029 |
| 24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32 | .027 |
| 24-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-31-32 | .021 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-30-31-31-32 | .021 |
| 24-24-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-31-32 | .020 |
| 24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-31-32-32 | .017 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-29-30-31-31-32 | .016 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-29-30-30-31-31-32 | .016 |
| 24-25-26-26-27-28-29-30-31-31-32-32 | .015 |
| 25-26-27-28-28-29-29-30-30-31-31-32-32 | .015 |
The #8 combination in 2014 disappears entirely, and #3 is barely used in 2015. I don’t know if this is something that happens every year, or just something unique to the 2015 set. Something to explore for another day.